- Analysis, Offshore wind, Projects
Top 10 offshore wind predictions for 2024
The analysis agency Esgian presents its top 10 offshore wind predictions for 2024.
- Heightened uncertainty from elections: Over 40 countries, including major players in offshore wind like the US, Belgium, South Korea, and Taiwan, face national elections in 2024. This may cause short-term uncertainty and delays in offshore wind developments, as well as potential long-term policy instability.
- Possible renaissance of near-term US projects: Despite negative trends in 2023, some US offshore wind projects are expected to recover, leading to project delays rather than cancellations. This situation will also affect Europe, potentially freeing up factory capacity and stressing the supply chain.
- Asian manufacturing growth engine: Asian nations, particularly South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam, are poised to solidify their roles as key players in offshore wind manufacturing and exports.
- Retail companies buying direct stakes in wind farms: Retail giants like IKEA and H&M are increasingly investing directly in offshore wind projects, contributing to decarbonization efforts and providing a hedge against fluctuating power prices.
- Adjusting to a phased buildup of floating: The scale of floating wind projects is expected to be downsized, focusing on projects that can be expanded gradually, allowing for technology development and supply chain maturation.
- 2035 becomes the new 2030. Expect targets to be adjusted, but the details matter: Countries might shift their offshore wind targets from 2030 to 2035, possibly raising the targets but risking the concealment of unmet earlier promises.
- De-risking of project portfolios: Developers are expected to concentrate on familiar, lower-risk markets to ensure profitable project pipelines, avoiding the challenges faced in new, untested markets.
- Cautious start to harmonising offshore wind carbon emissions estimation: Efforts will begin to align methods for estimating carbon emissions from offshore wind projects, with countries slowly moving towards a shared framework.
- Cyberattack creates havoc in European energy markets: There’s a potential risk of a cyberattack on offshore wind farms, which could significantly impact European energy markets and lead to protectionist policies.
- Italy finally improves permitting track, unblocking huge project pipeline: Italy may streamline its complicated permitting process, potentially unlocking a large number of proposed offshore wind projects and shifting the European focus towards large-scale floating wind in the Mediterranean.
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